Technical Analysis

EURUSD tests 38.2% and swing area

Up and down day for the EURUSD

The EURUSD has moved up and down today. The low extended to 1.1054 in the Asian session. Shot higher in the early European session but stalled just ahead of the high from yesterday at 1.10923 level (the high reached 1.1091 and reversed lower).

  

The subsequent run back to the downside has taken the price back below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October 1 low. That retracement level comes in at 1.10642. Also near that area is swing highs from October 11 at 1.1062, swing lows from October 16/17 at 1.1065. Earlier lows from this week also came in near that level at 1.1063-65. There is a lot of congestion at that 38.2% retracement area.

Admittedly, today the price has been above and below that area. So there is a battle going on, and traders may be reluctant to push too much to the downside.  As a result traders will be paying close attention to the next momentum move.   If the pair starts to trade more comfortably below the 1.1062 area, we should see increased downward momentum, with traders eyeing the session lows and then the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.10447. 

Conversely, if the sellers can’t make the push below (and stay below) this cluster of support, the ups and downs could continue, with a move back above the 1.1073 being a relief for the dip buyers (and should attract buying from intraday sellers on the disappointment). 

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