Technical Analysis

NZDUSD continues consolidation. Below 200 hour MA above.

Unemployment rate ticked higher 

The New Zealand employment statistics were released just before the close of trading yesterday. 

  • The employment rate moved up to 4.2% from 3.9% in the 2nd quarter. The expectations was 4.1%. 

The other pieces of the report came in as expected with the 

  • employment change 0.2% QoQ. 
  • The employment change at 0.9% YoY, and 
  • wages including and excluding overtime came in as expected 0.6% for both. 
  • The average hourly earnings were soft however at 0.6% versus 1.0% expected.

Overall, the tilt was softer fundamentally, and keeps the RBNZ in play for an ease at the November 13 meeting. The expectations for a cut are at 67.4%.

The NZDUSD did move a bit lower and in the process fell below the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart (blue line currently at 0.63752). However, the price did trade above and below that level for most of the Asian session.  

In the London session, the price has traded mostly above that MA as sellers gave up.  However, there has been a limit to the upside.  The 200 hour moving average at 0.63872 has done a good job of putting a lid on the pair today.  

We currently trade between the 200 hour moving average above and the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart below.  A battle is on.  Look for a break of either extreme with momentum for trading clues. As it is right now, the traders are unsure on which way to run.


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