AUD traders might want to take note of Citi on the path for Chinese economic data ‘surprises’ since mid-December
Citi’s economic surprise indices are quite clever, they assess how economic data is performing relative to expectations. If the data is beating that’s a positive surprise, and a miss is a negative surprise. Its a reasonable economic fundamental sentiment tracker. Other banks do similar but Citi’s is probably the best known.
Anyway, on China, Citi make the point that upside surprise margins on Chinese economic news flow relative to expectations has been “cautiously diminishing” since the middle of December
‘Cautiously diminishing’ is not panic stations, but just a gentle warning.