This piece from analysts in Singapore at S&P Platts is well worth checking out.
- in the past week, China suspended Australian beef imports and placed tariffs on Australian barley
- “This move to put tariffs on Australian barley is an escalation, clearly linked to Canberra’s advocacy for an international inquiry into the origins of COVID-19… I think we can expect more punitive actions” Ian Hall, Professor of International Relations at Australia’s Griffith University
Will seaborne LNG get embroiled in the dispute? S&P Platts conclude optimistically it will not, but do acknowledge the threat:
- The contractual nature of LNG trade and energy security concerns protect LNG from being on the receiving end of China’s predilection for using trade to lash out, but market participants aren’t discounting the possibility either, wary of heightened uncertainties due to the pandemic.
I’d be very wary of precluding any moves from China. .