Trades near highs
The GBPUSD extended up to the swing area at 1.2453-55 (low from June 15 and high from June 19). The high today reached 1.2455 and backed off to 1.24427 before wandering back higher in the currently hourly bar. Getting above the 1.2455 is still the next upside target. Above that, and the 38.2% at 1.24689, the falling 100 hour MA at 1.24754 would be targeted.
As outlined in the earlier post, the 100 hour MA has done a good job at putting a lid on the pair since June 16 (see blue numbered circles.
Since ranges are contained, the close risk for the buyers today is the earlier high for the day at 1.2433.
Having said that, the buyers still have a lot to prove. If the price cannot get above the 38.2% or the 100 hour MA, are the buyers taking control? Maybe for the day, but not for more than that. If the buyers like the market, they need to break those levels.