GDP set to bounce back
US GDP fell by 32.9% in the initial reading yesterday. It would take a 50% bounce to recoup that and it’s not going to happen all at once. The Atlanta Fed is out with its latest model and sees a 11.9% step on that recovery.
What’s interesting to note is that the first Q3 report will be out on October 29, which is just a few days before the election.
This estimate is on the low end of the consensus, which is at +18.0% at the moment. Q4 is at +6.5% and Q1 2021 at +5.0%.