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Trade ideas thread – European session 31 July 2020

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts

The dollar is weaker across the board, extending losses from yesterday as we see EUR/USD move closer towards 1.1900 while USD/JPY is keeping a firm break under 105.00.

The greenback is largely struggling for reprieve as Treasury yields are sinking further as well, crushing real yields in the US. Asian equities may be struggling a little but US futures are keeping more calm after better earnings from key tech giants overnight.

I would argue that there are toppish signs in EUR/USD and GBP/USD – more so the former on stretched positioning – as we approach 1.2000 and 1.3200 in general, but a further breakdown in USD/JPY (dragging the dollar lower) is hard to ignore.

The dollar chart itself isn’t pretty as it has been taking out support after support on the way down over the past two weeks:

BBDXY

Regardless, today is all about month-end trading so flows will dominate for the most part. As such, keep an eye on the moves ahead and at the London fix later in the day.

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