Technical Analysis

GBPUSD trends lower toward a key weekly target

The 100 week MA comes in at 1.27448

The GBPUSD’s high for the week was on Monday at 1.3256. The low was reached on Friday at 1.27614. The high to low trading range was an oversized 515 pips (highest since March 22 week).  The price action was a trend move lower (although Wednesday did close with a modest gain).  

Looking at the hourly chart above, the GBPUSD pair started a trend move lower for the week from 1.31836 on Monday. That moved accelerated on Tuesday and into Wednesday, breaking below a lower trend line at 1.31019 (selling intensified) and did not stop until reaching 1.28841 on Wednesday. 

The bounce on Wednesday and into Thursday, saw the correction of the trend move lower stall right at the 50% of the trend move lower at 1.30339 and the price moved lower into the Friday low at 1.27614.  There was a corrective move on Friday that tested the 38.2% of the trend move down from the Thursday high to the Friday low. That came in at 1.28655. Sellers leaned and the price closed below 1.2800 at the 1.2792 area.

Since the market price in the GBPUSD trended lower, for the week, it will take a move above the 38.2% -50% of the last legs move lower (see lower yellow area on the hourly chart above at 1.28655 to 1.28977) to take some the bearish trend out of the pair (given the current low).   Failure to do that as we head into the new week, keeps the sellers firmly in control. The trend remains to the downside (PS that move would also take the price back above the low from Wednesday at 1.28841).  

A technical level that may give sellers some cause for pause would come in at the 100 week MA at 1.27448 (see blue line in the chart below). The low last week got within 17 or so pips of the level. A break below it in the new trading week should increase the bearish tilt for the pair.  The next targets on the weekly chart could look toward the 38.2% at 1.26896 level. 

GBPUSD on the weekly chart

Sellers trended the pair lower last week (fundamentally concerns about Brexit increased).  The move was trend-like. Trends tend to go farther than traders think. So traders need to see the buyers winning a battle. That will come on from a corrective move on the hourly chart above the Thursday low and the 38.2-50% of the last leg lower.  Failure to do that, and the sellers remain in firm control and the trend lower can continue.  

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