US dollar jumps across the board
How long has it been since there was a decent-sized FX moved based on economic data? Be still my heart.
There was a lot of worry about a post-election slowdown but this is one of the earliest surveys of business and it looks like some optimism is setting in. Price pressures are also clear.
I don’t think this is a ‘US-only’ story but the market is acting like it is. Of course, some of that might be that dollar-shorts are an exceedingly popular trade. If numbers like this continue and inflation bubbles up, the Fed might have to engage in one of the all-time great climbdowns; from promising not to hike through 2023, to hiking next year.
Of course, it’s way too soon for that kind of talk. Even with the 40 pip rally in USD/JPY, the daily chart still looks like this: