Goldman Sachs forecasts oil to $65 in 2021

Goldman Sachs forecasts oil to $65 in 2021

GS sees Brent high next year, market rebalancing on a vaccine-led demand rebound and only a modest non-OPEC supply response.

  • However, market faces declining short-term demand in Europe due to the spread of virus lockdowns … “winter wave” will cause a 3m b/d hit to global oil demand, which will only be partially offset by heating and restocking demand 
  • conflicting signals likely to keep prices volatile in coming weeks 
  • will further complicate OPEC+’s decision to delay or implement its scheduled 1.9m b/d January production increase 
  • Goldman says its base case is a 3-month delay
  • If the cuts not extended oil to drop $5/bbl from current levels 

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