What sellers need to do to change the short term bias
The USDCHF reached its highest level going back to July 2020 on Monday. That my stalled near a swing area between 0.9360 and 0.93753. Sellers leaned against the swing area and push the price lower yesterday. Today, the pair is higher on the day after taking out yesterday’s lows, but not going very far.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the move lower yesterday so the pair extend below the 0.93185 level. That area as a number swing highs and lows over the last four trading days (see green numbered circles). Today, the high price stalled against that area. Staying below, would keep the sellers in play today. Move above and all bets are off. The buyers are in firm control.
On the downside, the pair started the day below its 38.2% retracement of the last trend move higher from the March 2 corrective low. That level comes in at 0.92834. However, the price moved back above that level in early Asian trading, and apart from a small dip below in the last hourly bar, has been able to stay above the level.
If the sellers can not take the price below the 38.2% retracement and stay below (this is of the last run higher), the sellers are not taking control.
Overall, the sellers are trying to take back some control below the 0.93185 level, but they are not doing a good job of extending that idea.