Technical Analysis

US 10 year yield tips into negative territory

Yield moves toward the low for the day at 1.5177%

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $38 billion of 10 year notes at 1 PM ET. Ahead of that auction, the 10 year yield has recently moved back down into negative territory for the day. It currently trades at 1.523%, down -0.3 basis points. The low yield for the day was earlier at 1.5177%. The high yield for the recent cycle move higher reached 1.6238% on Friday.

The move lower has pushed the yield further away from its 100 hour moving average at 1.5513%. Yield has been trading above and below that moving average over the last two trading days as traders ponder if yields have gone far enough.

Technically, although below its 100 hour moving average, the yield remains above a trendline on the hourly chart at 1.5069%, and the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.4966%. Back on March 2, the yield tested that 200 hour moving average for the first time since February 11, and found support. The yield has not closed below its 200 hour moving average since February 1, 2021.

The tech heavy NASDAQ has been particularly sensitive to interest rates of late. As a result, the auction at 1 PM will be key for that index. It remains above its 50 hour moving average at 13063.82, but below its 100 hour moving average at 13297.60 (currently trading at 13136.50)

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