This is a re-opening
One important thing to remember is that this is not a new issue. It’s a reopening of an existing 10-year note. So it’s really a 9-year, 11-month note.
That makes it easier to price and hedge because you can use the existing note, which is trading at 1.5091%. As you can see on the chart, no one is building in a concession and it’s trading near the low yield of the day.
This is the most-anticipated auction I can remember in 15 years of writing about these things. I’m sure there were a few other big ones but my memory is hazy.
In any case, the rule of thumb is that when everyone is watching something, nothing happens. It will probably go off right on the screws, which should clear the way for some bond buying and a further equity rally.