Technical Analysis

USDCAD trades to new lows and moves closer to the 2017 low

Low for the day reaches 1.20804. The 2017 low comes in at 1.20612

The USDCAD has wondered to new session lows in the current hourly bar at 1.20804. That has moved the price closer to its 2017 low at 1.20612.  

A break below the 2017 low will have the headlines start to read how “The USDCAD is trading at the lowest level since May 2015”. The price of the USDCAD has traded down for five consecutive trading weeks. This would be the 6th week, if the price can close below the closing level at 1.2129 area.

Drilling down to the hourly chart, last week the price moved above its 100 hour moving average on Tuesday and Wednesday but momentum toward the 200 hour moving average (green line) stalled well ahead of that target.  On Wednesday, the price moved back below the 100 hour moving average level with corrective tests falling short of that moving average on Thursday. The price decline accelerated.

The pair did test an upper trendline at the North American session high today, but found sellers. That trendline currently cuts across at 1.21174 (and moving lower). Stay below is more bearish and keeps the sellers firmly in control.  A move above should give sellers a bit more pause for cause, but there would still be a lot of work to be done to change the intermediate bias including getting above the 38.2% retracement of the last move down at 1.21835, and the falling 100 hour moving average currently at 1.2213. 

USDCAD on the hourly chart
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